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| Angelika/Mike Schilli |
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Angelika Although it's still quite some time until the next presidential elections in November 2016, we're already in the middle of fierce political campaigns this year. That's in part due to the long-winding process of the so-called primaries, in which the two major political parties, Republicans and Democrats determine their front-runners. Candidates need to mobilize their base during this time and pull out all the stops in order to distinguish themselves from the often unwieldy number of their competitors.
Given the choice between all the Republican party's candidates, both German and American news outlets have been focussing on Donald Trump so far. His provocative loudmouth demeanor along with his celebrity status have secured him the number one spot in the news. At first, many political analysts and most commentators of major newspapers like the New York Times belittled the Trump phenomenon as a bad joke and predicted its quick demise. But unexpectecly, Trump prevailed, albeit by causing irritation in the very same Republican party that supported him in the first place. Common wisdom in these circles has it that he distracts from other viable candidates who would actually have a greater chance to get elected into office.
It's tempting to simply write off Trump as a crazy person. It's true that his behaviour is often unacceptable and what we keep hearing from him are mostly empty platitudes. But it would be a mistake to underestimate his abilities. Although his chances of being nominated are slim because he's severly insulted several big voting groups, he's heavily fueling the election campaign and takes away the attention from other Republican candidates. Especially his radical attitude towards illegal immigrants will almost certainly backfire at some point. His idea of building a wall at the border between Mexico and the United States and his plan to deport all illegal immigrants back to their home countries is rather ludicrous. Knowing that the Republican party needs the votes of US citizens with Latin American background to win, that's not such a hot idea.
Trump has also scared off many voters with the most ridiculous claims. For example, he once stated that most illegal immigrants are criminals. However, this is clearly incorrect, as offical crime statistics prove that illegal immigrants are less likely to commit violent crimes than natively born Americans. If you think about it, this is what you would expect, knowing that it would very unwise for someone to attract unwanted attention while living in a foreign country without legal papers. Unsurprisingly, Trump's tirades have since, raised the ire of many Americans with ties to Latin American countries, who don't find it especially humorous when their countrymen are subject to baseless accusations.
But the question remains as to why Trump obtained so much traction in the first place. He apparently primarily attracts Republican voters who generally feel betrayed by the majority of politicians in Washington. His target group are the lower middle class voters and small business owners, who are feeling threatened in their existence by the current immigration and globalization policies. Another part of his audience are right wing extremists who fear the country's downfall because they're white Americans who are no longer in the majority. Trump is an outsider, and just like Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, who also have hopes of getting nominated by the Republican party, has never held any position in American politics. But that might actually help him, just like it seems to help Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina. Problem is, though, that people seem to forget that no president, Trump or not Trump, can act like a pitbull in the White House, because his success depends largely on how he can strike deals with the Senate and the House of Representatives in the democratic process, which requires more negotiation skills and the willingness to compromise than anything else.
Interestingly, Trump originally ran as an independant candidate, but later switched to become a candidate for the Republican party. I still want to believe that his whole campaign is only a PR gag that will help him get another successful television deal like the former hit series "The Apprentice" (Rundbrief 05/2004), and maybe this time, he'll be able to even squeeze more money out of it.
Switching our focus to the Democratic Party now, it's interesting to see that a new contender from the bylines has joined the race. Bernie Sanders doesn't get as much media coverage as Trump, but his fan base has been growing steadily. He is attracting voters from the Democratic Party's left wing, mainly citizens who are deeply unhappy about the fact that Barack Obama hasn't accomplished as much as they'd hoped for, and who are committed to prevent another incarnation of the Clinton dynasty from happening. The 74-year-old Sanders even boasts an impressive following amongst younger voters. Unlike Trump, he believes in the democratic process, and he's is quite an experienced hand in Washington. Since 2007, he's been holding a seat in the Senate for the State of Vermont. From 1991 till 2007, he had been a member of the House of Representatives. He's even been the major of the town of Burlington in Vermont before. Only since 2015, he's been a member of the Democratic Party, before that, he had been running as an Independent for his various positons of political office.
He's been active for over 40 years, pressing for equal social rights. He calls himself a socialist democrat, which is almost a bad word in the United States. Bernie Sanders pushes for fair wages, better working conditions (like legally guaranteed sick days), universal healthcare, and, above all, less influence on the policital process by the utra rich through party contributions. He's opposed to the so-called super pacs (Rundbrief 11/2012) and is funding his election campaign through small time donations of under $200 each by regular citizens. It remains to be seen how well he's going to do in the primaries. The Clinton apparatus will leave to stone unturned to prevent Sanders getting nominated. Ironically, he's not favored by minorities, although these voters would benefit most from his proposed politics. He's simply not that well known in these circles.
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