12/01/2019   English German

  Edition # 131  
San Francisco, 12-01-2019


Figure [1]: Angelika won 50 dollars by getting a straight flush in video poker.

Michael Gambling in the casino is the main attraction for many visitors in Las Vegas. Some save up all year just to let loose at the blackjack or craps table for a few hours -— and then go home without any money left. We also like to spend some time in the casino, but not just because of the slot machines; it's because human dramas unfold there that can only happen at a casino. During our last visit, we overheard a couple where the woman confessed to the man that she felt guilty about blowing her grandmother's gift money and wondered if she should rather invest it in a tank of gas for the car. No, no, the man said, after all, it was her money now and she could spend it however she wanted!

We are not big gamblers, but we are fascinated by the somewhat outdated video poker machines. We play by some simple rules that allow us to get back 99% of our stake, and while we play, the casino waitresses serve us high-quality alcoholic drinks for free, for which we only tip the waitress about one to two dollars each time.

Figure [2]: Oops, Michael made a mistake and didn't play optimally.

I have already described the video poker strategy before (Rundbrief 03/2009), so just a brief recap: The goal is to keep the right cards from the five initially dealt cards and exchange the rest once, in order to form a good poker hand: a high pair, a full house, a straight, or even a royal flush. Depending on the value of the hand, the machine then pays out the winnings or remains silent. Using probability calculations, one can determine which cards to keep from a given hand for the highest possible chance of winning and which to exchange. For each situation, mathematics prescribes the "correct" move, but keeping all the individual rules in mind is not quite simple.

Figure [3]: Speculating on a straight and holding four cards is by far the best choice here.

But with some practice, you can achieve about a 99% payout rate; really savvy pros can even reach 99.5% -- so the casino always wins 50 cents for every hundred dollars wagered, which is more than worth the alcohol-fueled fun. If you want to test at home whether you have mastered the rules, I recommend the smartphone app "Winpoker," which not only accurately simulates the slot game but also issues warnings if the player should have chosen different cards than the ones clicked. The app even calculates how much each playing error costs, down to the last cent, and mathematically inclined individuals can compare the winning probabilities of different moves. That brings out the inner child in every man.

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