Angelika In the last newsletter, I promised to explain why we have great concerns that Trump might get re-elected. As I said, I would be very happy if my prediction turns out to be wrong. But why do I hold this opinion? It is true that a lot can happen before the actual election date in November 2020, but anyone who thinks that Trump will be removed from office is living in a fantasy world, because the Republican-dominated Senate will never turn its back on Trump.

However, one of the glaring mistakes of the Democratic candidates is that they are aiming for a revolution instead of focusing on preventing Trump's re-election. Ultimately, everything boils down to the Democratic base and the American electoral system. The base wants to see a radical change in direction after four years of Trump. Therefore, they are backing candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, who advocate more left-leaning ideas by American standards. One such idea is to replace private health insurance, which many receive through their employers, with a state-managed health insurance system. Additionally, Elizabeth Warren has set a goal to break up large and powerful companies like Google, Amazon, and Facebook to curb their influence.

To secure the nomination for the Democratic Party, Warren and her team must win the primaries in the individual states. In these primaries, die-hard Democrats cast their votes, typically those who want a revolution. Currently, in some states like Iowa or New Hampshire, which hold their primaries first, Elizabeth Warren is leading according to polls, closely followed by Bernie Sanders. On a national level, however, Joe Biden is still the frontrunner. The problem now is that if Joe Biden does not win the primaries in the early-voting states, the entire election machinery can take on a life of its own, and campaign donations are more likely to flow to the winners. Consequently, the field of Democratic candidates may thin out because many simply run out of money.

The problem with Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, on the other hand, is that if they were to run against Trump, they would need votes from independents and moderate voters to win the so-called "swing states," which are the states that sometimes go to the Democratic candidate and other times to the Republican candidate. Without these states, no candidate can become president due to the electoral college system, as it is not enough to have the majority of the direct votes. Unfortunately, Joe Biden has not exactly shone in the debates. Now, the former mayor of New York has also entered the race for the Democrats: Mike Bloomberg, who is considered pragmatic and moderate and, above all, has enough money to finance his own campaign. Many believe that he thought about this too late and, moreover, could take votes away from Joe Biden. A drama without end, which will hopefully not end in a catastrophe.

Greetings from the land of crazy politics:

Angelika and Michael

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• More topics you might be interested in:

  	Rent cars from private owners: Turo
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