07/03/2023   English German
  Edition # 149  
San Francisco, 07-03-2023

Presidential Campaigns Have Begun
Figure [1]: Will Trump be re-elected President in 2024?

Angelika We hadn't really thought that it would come to this again, but now both Trump and Biden want to try one more time and stand for election as President in 2024. The election campaign in America has already begun. Trump had always said that he wanted to run again, but nobody really believed it. The hope was that Trump would be forgotten with the passage of time. Unfortunately, that is not the case. His base remains loyal to him. Biden had also promised to retire after one term, but apparently he can't stay away from the White House either.

Many Democratic voters are not enthusiastic about this. They would have liked another, and above all younger, candidate. Everyone gets tired quickly in the office of the President, as we could already observe with Obama, who suddenly became grey, but Biden seems to be ignoring all doubts about his age. Nobody can really warm up to Kamala Harris, whom Biden wants to have by his side again. Many are concerned that Biden may not be able to last another four years, as he already looks frail, and that Kamala Harris will then have to take over the office.

So far, it seems that no one in the Democratic Party is daring enough to really challenge Biden, at least there are no serious candidates. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., son of the murdered politician Robert Kennedy and nephew of John F. Kennedy, has jumped into the race, but with his conspiracy theories and anti-vaccination campaigns, he is not doing well with typical Democratic voters. Then there is Marianne Williamson, author and former spiritual advisor to Oprah Winfrey, but I would dare to say that no one is giving her any chances. The rumor mill keeps bringing up Gavin Newsom, our current governor of California, but although everyone knows he has ambitions for the White House and would be a serious candidate, he is hesitating for some reason.

Figure [2]: Biden is running again in 2024, but it's unknown with Newsom.

Among Republican candidates, it's hard to keep track of them all. The field is large. In addition to Trump, there is the Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis. In my opinion, he is a would-be Trump, one of the younger politicians in the race at 44 years old. However, DeSantis is very conservative and known for getting involved in various culture wars that seem very outdated in times of climate crisis and other hotspots in the world. DeSantis is however considered to have the best odds in the primaries against Trump. However, he has the charisma of a sleeping pill. Furthermore, the Republican Party is represented by the following candidates: Nikki Haley, former Governor of South Carolina and former UN representative under Trump; Vivek Ramaswamy, entrepreneur and author; Asa Hutchinson, former Governor of Arkansas; Larry Elder, a conservative radio personality; Tim Scott, Senator from South Carolina; Mike Pence, Trump's former Vice President; Chris Christie, former Governor of New Jersey; Doug Burgum, Governor of North Dakota, Francis Suarez, Mayor of Miami, and Will Hurd, former Texas Congressman. Those who know the American system of primaries know that this field will quickly thin out.

The exciting question remains: what will happen if Trump is actually convicted in the pending case regarding the secret documents? The Constitution does not prohibit someone who has been convicted and sentenced from being President. It is also unlikely that the proceedings will be completed before the presidential election begins. I think it is rather unlikely that Trump will have to serve a prison sentence. Comedians are currently playing up the prison scenario, but the Secret Service must guard the President at all times and in all places and no one knows how to do this logistically in prison. It would certainly be unthinkable to conduct the official business from prison, but this situation has never existed in the US, so no one really knows what would actually happen. An impeachment procedure would be one possibility if the President cannot fulfill his duties in prison. Another possibility would be that Trump pardons himself if he is convicted. Here too, opinions differ as to whether this is legally possible at all. Trump of course uses the whole thing mercilessly to portray himself as a victim and mobilize his base. Some malicious voices even claim that he has not handed over the secret documents despite several requests, in order to play out this scenario, because if he had given back the documents, the case would most likely have fizzled out quietly. Madness!

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